Achieve Better Results

The triple convergence is a concept managed by Thomas Friedman in his book the world is flat, which explains how the combination of three key factors contributed to the productivity in the process of globalization and consolidation of value networks. Similarly in a forecast process there are three key factors which contribute greatly to achieving better results in the demand forecast to the converge, these factors are: Software people process n Software in their infancy companies elaborated the forecast manually (pencil and paper) to subsequently migrate to electronic spreadsheets despite the limitations that these present. As part of this development many companies are currently evaluating software specialized in the subject, to enable them to have a better prognosis-based and whose collaborative capabilities ensure you able to fully model the reality of the business. People in technology today has helped replace many of the routine operations than in the past They executed people, and in fact in many cases the introduction of new technologies involves replacing personnel in companies. However it is clarified that the best forecast processes carry implicit two components, the quantitative which is supplied by the software and the qualitative which is supplied by human knowledge and in no case a software tool can replace the knowledge and experience of human beings. In an article for the CIO magazine, Ben Worthen said the demand forecast sounds like an exact science, but if you look carefully people are half of the equation in the process. Another fundamental aspect when analysing the human component is the ability of a company to develop a structured organizational learning process, however not all organizations sense as enhancing human talent or they consider important this factor within the business outcomes.

Process in 1989 the historian Paul a. David in his essay computer and Dynamo, productivity paradox contemporary, seen in a mirror not too distant signals using a historical precedent that although the light bulb was invented in 1879, had to wait several decades until the introduction of electricity and see its enormous economic and productive impact. In the case of electricity says David advance more decisive occurred in the design and administration of the warehouses and production lines. According to the experience many companies despite acquiring a good prognostic tool, have failed to see its benefits. Part of this problem is the fact that introducing new technologies is not enough by itself only, the achievement of better results involves combining the technology with a good design of a formal process of forecast. The design of the process should include the existence and reliability of entries in the process, frequency, their tasks and decision-makers. In conclusion the proper combination of these three factors will help ensure that the forecast is reasonable, realistic, reviewable and which represents the demand completely; Once this is achieved the companies may build competitive advantages based on an adequate estimate of the demand.

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